Clarksville Housing Market

Comprehensive Analysis 2024-2025

An in-depth comparative analysis of the Clarksville, Tennessee housing market based on the comprehensive Housing Needs Assessment commissioned by the Clarksville Montgomery County Regional Planning Commission

Study Period: 2024 (October) | Public Release: July 29, 2025

Executive Summary

Key Market Indicators

Population Growth
186,107
↑ 41% since 2010
Total Households
68,847
↑ 40% since 2010
Median Home Value
$279K
11% below TN median
Market Occupancy
96.7%
Critically tight
For-Sale Inventory
1.8 Mo
vs 4-6 mo healthy
Unemployment Rate
3.5%
Lowest since 2014
Daily Commuters
25,000+
Into Clarksville
Fort Campbell Impact
31,200
Military + Civilian

Extreme Housing Shortage

With only 526 available homes against 38,418 owner-occupied units, the market has a critically low 1.4% vacancy rate (healthy: 2-3%).

Unprecedented Growth

Clarksville is adding 5,000-6,000 people annually, requiring 7,600 housing units just to maintain current (inadequate) conditions.

Affordability Crisis

21,000 households are cost-burdened, with many paying over 50% of income toward housing. Only 18 homes under $200K available.

Military Influence

Fort Campbell employs 26,800 military + 4,400 civilian personnel, creating constant housing demand with a 21.6% annual movership rate.

Commuter Opportunity

Over 25,000 people commute into Clarksville daily, with 8,600 traveling 50+ miles. Massive untapped market for workforce housing.

Development Pipeline

1,600+ single-family homes currently planned/proposed, but still insufficient to meet the projected 15,193 total unit gap by 2029.

Demographics

Population & Household Trends

2024 Current
Population 186,107
Total Households 68,847
Owner Households 38,418 (55.8%)
Renter Households 30,429 (44.2%)
Median HH Income $67,372
Median Age 30.5 years
Senior Households (55+) 20,870 (30.3%)
2029 Projected
Population 204,496
Total Households 76,443
Owner Households 43,691 (57.2%)
Renter Households 32,753 (42.8%)
Median HH Income $77,016
Median Age 31.2 years
Senior Households (55+) 24,408 (31.9%)
5-Year Growth (2024-2029)
+7,596
New households needed
Young Professionals (<35)
33.5%
Of all households
In-Migrant Age
74.5%
Under 35 years old
Senior Growth (2024-2029)
+3,538
Age 55+ households

Age Demographics

Clarksville skews significantly younger than Tennessee overall, with median age of 30.5 years vs state average of 39.8. This is driven by Fort Campbell's military population.

Household Growth

Projected 11% household growth through 2029 far exceeds Tennessee's projected 4.7% growth, indicating sustained demand for all housing types.

Income Distribution

While median income is 4% below state average, projected growth is concentrated in $60K-$100K+ earners, suggesting demand for mid-to-upper market housing.

Housing Supply

Current Market Conditions

Rental Market
Overall Occupancy 96.7%
Market-Rate Occupancy 96.3%
Affordable Occupancy 100.0%
Properties Surveyed 89 properties
Total Units Surveyed ~11,000 units
Average Gross Rent $1,127/mo
Properties w/ Waitlists 70% affordable
For-Sale Market
Available Homes 526 units
Vacancy Rate 1.4%
Months of Supply 1.8 months
Median Sales Price (2023) $294,900
Median Price (Jul 2024) $302,700
Homes Under $200K 18 (3.4%)
Avg Days on Market 49 days
2023 Annual Sales
3,139
↓ 27% from 2022
Price Growth (2022-2023)
+1.7%
Despite volume decline
Non-Conventional Rentals
393
2.1% vacancy rate
New Construction (2020-2024)
61%
Of multifamily units

Multifamily Demand

Market-rate apartments at 96.3% occupied with 18% maintaining waitlists. Healthy markets operate at 94-96%, indicating virtually no availability.

Affordable Housing Crisis

100% occupancy on all subsidized housing with some properties reporting 5-year waitlists. Zero availability for households earning under $40K.

Price Distribution

77.6% of available homes priced $200K-$399K, with only 3.4% under $200K and 19% above $400K. Major gap in entry-level inventory.

Inventory Shortage

With only 1.8 months supply vs healthy 4-6 months, buyers have minimal options. This drives prices up and locks out first-time buyers.

Single-Family Rentals

Non-conventional rentals (houses, duplexes) comprise 70% of rental market but have only 2.1% vacancy - below healthy 4-6% range.

Market Velocity

Average 49 days on market indicates high demand. Combined with rising prices despite volume decline, suggests supply constraints driving market dynamics.

Housing Gaps 2024-2029

Projected Demand by Segment

Total Housing Gap
15,193 Units
Rental Gap
6,598
43.4% of total need
For-Sale Gap
8,595
56.6% of total need
Annual Need
~3,039
Units per year
To "Tread Water"
7,600
Maintain current
Rental Housing Gaps
6,598 Units
Extremely Low-Income
1,094
< $602/month
Very Low-Income
1,073
$603 - $1,004/mo
Low-Income
1,444
$1,005 - $1,606/mo
Moderate-Income
1,805
$1,607 - $2,409/mo
High-Income Market-Rate
1,182
$2,410+/month
For-Sale Housing Gaps
8,595 Units
Entry-Level
525
≤ $133,833
Lower-Income
1,117
$133,834 - $214,133
Moderate-Income
3,283
$214,134 - $321,200
Higher-Income
3,670
$321,201+

Largest Rental Gap

Moderate-income rentals ($1,607-$2,409) have the highest demand with 1,805 units needed. This segment serves working professionals and military families.

Largest For-Sale Gap

Higher-income homes ($321K+) show greatest demand with 3,670 units needed, followed closely by moderate-income homes at 3,283 units.

Affordable Housing Critical

Combined 3,611 units needed at extremely low to low-income rental levels, yet this segment has 100% occupancy and multi-year waitlists currently.

Regional Economic Growth 2025-2029

Unprecedented Economic Transformation

$7.1B+
Combined Investment
1,745+
Verified New Jobs*
940-1,210
Additional Housing Units Needed*

Industrial Development: $6.6+ Billion

Korea Zinc - Advanced Materials Complex

Announced 2025
Investment
$6.6 Billion
Jobs Created
420
Housing Units Needed
250-350
Timeline
2026-2029

Housing Impact:

  • ▸ Largest single industrial investment in Tennessee history
  • ▸ 420 high-wage manufacturing jobs in Montgomery County (740 total statewide)
  • ▸ Construction begins 2026, phased operations starting 2029

Northpark Logistics - Industrial Park

Delivering Summer 2026
Square Footage
2,255,000 SF
Buildings
11
Status
For Lease
Location
Hwy 79, Clarksville
Features: Rail-served Class A industrial park | RJ Corman Rail | Divisible to 18,200 SF | Broker: Colliers

Regional Retail Development

Buc-ee's Travel Center - Oak Grove, KY

Construction 2026
Site Size
38 Acres
Daily Visitors
3,300-5,000
Est. Jobs
75+
Location
I-24 Exit 89
Impact: Flagship travel center | 120+ fuel pumps | Regional draw from TN/KY | Catalyst for surrounding development

★ Adjacent Development Opportunity

FOR SALE
Acreage
110.44 AC
Address
250 Carneal Ln
I-24 ADT
33,338
Fort Campbell
30,000+

Ideal Uses: Hotel, QSR pad sites, retail, truck stop services, workforce housing

Contact: James Church, KW Commercial | TN #367269 | KY #292357

Cell: 707.592.2777 | james.church@kwcommercial.com

Healthcare Expansion: $434.5 Million

TriStar Health - Clarksville Hospital

✓ CON Approved July 23, 2025
Investment
$286M
Beds
68 (→224)
Jobs Created
200+
Opens
2028

Ascension Saint Thomas - Hospital & Health Campus

✓ CON Approved July 23, 2025
Investment
$148.5M
Beds
44 (→132)
Jobs Created
250+
Campus
96 Acres
Location: Highway 76 & I-24 Exit 11 | Campus: 40-bed rehab hospital, oncology, orthopedics, EMS

Freedom Farms - I-24 Exit 4

✓ Approved Oct 3, 2025
Size
200 Acres
Jobs Created
800+
Housing Units Needed
350-450
Tax Revenue
$6.5M/yr

Cumulative Impact Analysis

Development Investment Jobs Housing Units Timeline
Korea Zinc $6.6B 420 250-350 2026-2029
Northpark Logistics TBD TBD TBD 2.25M SF
TriStar Hospital $286M 200+ 120-150 Opens 2028
Ascension Hospital $148.5M 250+ 180-200 Opens 2028
Freedom Farms TBD 800+ 350-450 200 Acres
Buc-ee's Oak Grove TBD 75+ 40-60 2026-2027
TOTAL $7.1B+ 1,745+* 940-1,210* 2025-2029

Critical Finding: Compounding Housing Crisis

15,193
Existing Gap (Assessment)
940-1,210
Verified New Demand*
16,130-16,400
Total Gap by 2029*
  • Current Pipeline: Only 1,600 units planned/proposed
  • Remaining Shortage: 14,530-14,800 units STILL NEEDED
  • Annual Construction Required: 3,200-3,400 units per year (2025-2029)

*Excludes Northpark Logistics (2.25M SF) job/housing impact - data not yet available. Actual totals will be higher once tenants are announced.

The regional economic expansion validates and intensifies the housing crisis, creating unprecedented urgency for multifamily, single-family, and build-to-rent development.

Regional Economic Growth data compiled by James Church, KW Commercial | Sources: Tennessee Health Services and Development Agency (CON Approvals), Industrial Development Board announcements, local planning commission records, and regional economic development reports.

Investment Opportunities

Strategic Development Insights

Multifamily Development

Market at 96.7% occupancy with 6,598 rental units needed. Highest demand in $1,600-$2,400/month range. Consider 3-4 story garden style or mid-rise near employment centers.

Build-to-Rent Communities

Single-family rentals at only 2.1% vacancy. Strong opportunity for BTR developments targeting military families with BAH and young professionals seeking single-family lifestyle.

Land Assembly

With 8,595 for-sale units needed and 1,600 already planned, substantial gap remains. National builders seeking entitled land for moderate-to-upper price point product.

Senior Housing

3,538 senior households (55+) projected by 2029. Demand for assisted living, memory care, and independent living (cottage-style or elevator buildings).

Affordable Housing (LIHTC)

100% occupancy with multi-year waitlists creates strong case for tax credit developments. 3,611 units needed at affordable levels. City exploring Community Land Trust.

Military-Focused Housing

Fort Campbell's 31,200 employees create constant demand. Consider short-term/extended stay for PCS moves, or flexible lease terms matching military assignment cycles.

Entry-Level Homes

Only 18 homes under $200K available (3.4% of inventory). Massive opportunity for first-time buyer product in $150K-$250K range serving young military and working families.

Commuter Conversion

25,000 daily commuters (8,600 travel 50+ miles) represent untapped market. Market housing near employment centers targeting commute time reduction.

Mixed-Use Development

High population density (1,859/sq mi) supports mixed-use. Consider retail/restaurant ground floor with residential above in walkable locations.

Townhomes & Condos

Growing 1-2 person households (60.5% of renters) create demand for attached/higher-density for-sale product. Appeals to seniors and young professionals.

Premium Market

Largest for-sale gap is $321K+ (3,670 units). Growing high-income household base supports luxury single-family and high-end multifamily product.

Workforce Housing

Teachers, police, nurses, municipal employees need $214K-$321K homes (3,283 unit gap). Consider partnering with major employers on down payment assistance.

Market Timing Considerations

Why Now?

Extreme supply shortage across all segments
Strong demographic growth (5K-6K people annually)
3.5% unemployment - lowest in decade
Rising incomes - median up 14.3% by 2029
Fort Campbell provides economic stability

Growth Trajectory

5-year projection: 7,596 new households
15,193 total housing units needed
1,600 units already planned (still 13,500+ gap)
Assessments every 2 years going forward
• Nashville MSA spillover driving growth

Competitive Advantage

First-mover advantage in undersupplied market
City supportive of housing development
Multiple incentive programs available
Land costs lower than Nashville MSA
• Strong regional economic drivers